Noone knows a thing

The sensex has crossed 10500, an unexpected 25% jump from where it was just two weeks ago.
All analysts and brokers predicted the bear market rally ( from sensex at 7600 in Oct to 8800 in Mar ) reversal at any moment and predicted newer lows in the next 2 weeks ( maybe 5000, one analyst told me ) . That was last week.
The same analysts are predicting the current rallys peak now ( maybe 12500, another broker tells me today)!
"Bear market rallies aren't uncommon,' had said a global guru two weeks back ,' but having thus far and no further. "
"What we are seeing is only domestic investor action, the FIIs are only net sellers. Over 11000cr has been invested by indian institutional investors and the market is flat - indicating that its the FII money that moves the Indian markets. And considering the latest US industry data, it seems quite some time coming", said a TV presenter last tuesday
"I am selling all emerging markets. Maybe second half is when I will come back" said another investment guru at the end of last weeks markets summary
"Downgrade", said a rating agency of a couple of stocks
"Sensex at 5000 in the near term", said an analyst
"Sell at next rally"
"Buy at lows"
I wanted to hold Reliance, my broker said sell- I sold at 1500. It's 1700 today. Just five days after I sold .
I wanted to buy more of L&T at 565 two weeks back. 'The way it is chasing Satyam, it will go to 300' said an insurance head. I didn't buy. It's 770 today.
I wanted to buy ICICI at 305 in the same week. 'This is a stock with amazing NPAs. Everyone' s dumping it.' Sure enough, next three days ICICI hit 275. Today its at 374.
I bought Satyam at 46. When it hit 38 last week, I buzzed my broker wanting to buy treble the stock quantity and lower my average buy price. 'No way, money down the drain', he said', wait till it gets directions'. Talk of directions, in 2 sessions, it has hit 46. With my intuitive averaging out buy, I would have been +3 bucks on the stock.
Tata group is in Rs. 1 trillion debt, thats 90% of the groups turnover. Sell all Tata. Today, eight trading days later, all its stocks are up 15%. Debt be dammed.
Noone knows a thing.
Today, all analysts are saying just the opposite of what they said two weeks ago - all is hunky dory, life has changed, everyone has got jobs , G20 summit was great, Paulson's done the bailout trick, madoffs in jail , elections far away.
Here's a prediction from Barclay capitals aired this afternoon - 'this bull run will last the next three quarters of 09'
I am not buying !